With the United States and Iran unable to reach a peace deal, hostilities have resumed, with little sign of a diplomatic ceasefire, writes Politico.
Efforts by Arab, Pakistani and other mediators to restart talks or restore a ceasefire have failed, and the general sentiment in the Middle East and elsewhere is that the fighting will simply continue, at least for now.
A former U.S. official who remains in contact with President Donald Trump’s administration and spoke on condition of anonymity said the White House lacks a clear direction and that the situation will continue for some time, with the lack of trust between Iran and the United States, which is the foundation of all diplomatic negotiations.
The resumption of hostilities means a renewed US naval blockade, and Tehran has carried out several attacks on American allies in the Persian Gulf.
Trump has made it clear that the Iranians must relinquish control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, Iran has been able to withstand attacks on it and is still able to threaten shipping lanes with drones and missiles.
Fred Fleitz, the former head of the US President’s National Security Council, said he believes Trump will try to ensure that Iran cannot threaten traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. He added that, in his opinion, the so-called “lawnmower” strategy will be used in the future, when both Tehran and Washington will only respond to military provocations, and the Americans will simply have to wait for the Iranian people to “get their country back.”
Trump offered a kind of concession on the 14th of July, abandoning a plan to demand a toll from all ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and indicated that US Navy ships will escort commercial ships in exchange for investment agreements with the United States.
White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said Iran had broken the deal, and while Trump has always favored diplomacy and peaceful solutions,
the agreement was based on performance, and Iran’s actions did not indicate a commitment to the terms.
Trump’s demand, which he later withdrew, is a typical sign of his policy of rapid changes in approach. Meanwhile, White House allies see a US response as necessary.
Former National Security Council chief Alex Gray said Trump should have responded when Iran broke the deal, and that is what he is doing now. He said there was no way to return to balance if the Americans did not show a willingness to escalate the situation if necessary.
Before the US-imposed naval blockade was re-imposed on the 14th of July, Iran launched a new wave of attacks on Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait. All of them are home to US military bases. The day before, Washington launched a five-hour attack on Iran.
The Kuwaiti army reported shooting down 33 drones, a ballistic missile and a cruise missile.
Another sign that the fighting will continue is the still strong American military presence in the Middle East.
Two aircraft carriers and several warships are still in the region, with about 2,500 Marines on board. Most of the ships can launch long-range missiles, and bases in countries friendly to the US around the Persian Gulf still have fighter jets and long-range missiles stored. In total, about 50,000 American troops have been deployed in the Middle East since the war began on the last day of February.
Windward Intelligence, a private company that tracks shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, reported on the 14th of July that it had spotted 23 ships in the Persian Gulf that could be trying to break through the blockade, with ten of them carrying cargo worth about 432 million dollars.
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted or completely halted for months, and no deal has been reached that would actually work. Although the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in June to end hostilities, both sides have repeatedly accused each other of violating the agreement. The fragile and very conditional peace was put to an end by Trump’s announcement at the NATO summit in Ankara that the ceasefire was over.
Read also: Trump seeks payment for “protecting the Strait of Hormuz
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