Saudi Arabia is facing a difficult choice – since the US and Israel launched a war against Iran on the last day of February, the country has tried to avoid involvement in it, writes the BBC.
Now, with attacks coming from three sides, it is too much. This week, Saudi Arabia joined the US in strikes on targets in Iraq linked to Iranian-backed groups. Groups friendly to Iran are believed to be carrying out strikes on Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia’s main dilemma now is whether to continue to carry out counter-strikes or try to de-escalate the situation, perhaps even paying off its enemies to keep quiet.
Who is attacking whom and why? In the conflict that has threatened to engulf the Persian Gulf region and the entire Middle East for almost five months, there are basically two sides. One side is Iran, with its Revolutionary Guard Corps. It is allied with the Houthi group in Yemen, a tribal group that seized control of much of the country in 2014. Iran is also supported by the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq (which is believed to have carried out 30 drone strikes on Saudi Arabia), and Tehran is also allied with the terrorist group Hezbollah in Lebanon, which is currently trying to remain invisible.
On the other side of the conflict is the United States,
which is supported to varying degrees by the Gulf Arab states and Jordan. Israel remains a close US ally, but is not currently directly involved in the hostilities.
Iran has recently focused its drone attacks on Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain, and has also attacked commercial ships trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, avoiding Iran’s new rules and route requirements.
The Iraqi group and the Houthis in Yemen are a relatively new phenomenon, and they illustrate how, without a lasting peace agreement between the United States and Iran, the region could be drawn into deeper conflict. There are several reasons why Saudi Arabia is avoiding full-scale conflict. Its de facto ruler, the relatively young Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, wants to steer the country along a path he has dubbed “Vision 2030.” His plan includes weaning the kingdom off its dependence on oil revenues and developing vibrant, modern local industries that could create meaningful jobs for hundreds of thousands of school and university graduates. Part of the plan also involves attracting foreign investment, for example by building data centers that would be highly vulnerable to attack. It is impossible for Saudi Arabia to be under constant threat from drones or ballistic missiles.
Saudi Arabia already experienced an unpleasant situation in 2019. Relations with Iran were at a low ebb, and Tehran-backed groups from Iraq had launched a massive drone attack on two of Saudi Arabia’s most important oil facilities. This completely halted oil exports for several days and made Riyadh realize how vulnerable its critical infrastructure was.
Another reason for the wait is oil, which remains the backbone of Saudi Arabia’s economy.
Following the US attacks in the spring, Iran almost completely closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas are exported from the Persian Gulf. Saudi Arabia responded by pumping as much oil as it could (about five million barrels per day) through a pipeline to a terminal on the Red Sea coast. There, it was loaded onto tankers and shipped to markets in Asia. All seemed well, but in response to the Saudi-backed Yemeni government’s attacks on the airport, the Houthis have also begun to threaten shipping in the Red Sea, making shipping through the Babel-e Mandeb Strait extremely dangerous. This has cut off the route for Saudi oil exports to Asia.
Saudi Arabia has been trying to force the Houthis to surrender for seven years, but it has still not happened. The war in Yemen is one of the worst humanitarian crises in modern history, and its consequences are still being felt. In 2022, Saudi Arabia concluded an uneasy ceasefire with the Houthis, and there were reports of a deal. Now, however, Saudi Arabia is once again facing threats from the Houthis, and also from Iraq, and none of this was planned in Vision 2030.
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