The first phase of the Rail Baltica main line in Latvia is planned within its existing scope, including the creation of a cross-border Rail Baltica connection from Lithuania to the Estonian border, as well as the completion of construction works at Riga Airport and the southern section of Riga Central Station. This would allow Rail Baltica to be connected to Latvia’s existing railway network, Transport Minister Rihards Kozlovskis (New Unity) told reporters on Wednesday following a meeting of the thematic committee overseeing the project.
The minister stressed that this solution applies specifically to the project’s first phase and that the idea of the so-called “Riga loop” has not been abandoned. “We would like to look at it differently, but we are in 2026 and we have to think rationally,” Kozlovskis said.
The committee on Wednesday heard a report on the results of an in-depth review of the Rail Baltica project, which outlined three possible scenarios. “One scenario was to continue what had been started and proceed as before, which is neither acceptable nor possible. The second scenario is to review and reduce the requirements, while the third is to immediately terminate any further activities,” Kozlovskis explained. He stressed that the project must move towards optimisation – building and financing only what is technically essential rather than “funding various visions and, to some extent, dreams”.
Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs (United List) said Latvia must establish a “minimum programme”, or a basic scenario for the project. According to him, consultants found that, for example, the approximately 600-kilometre Madrid–Barcelona high-speed railway technically has two stations, with one serving as the main stop, whereas Latvia’s roughly 200-kilometre section has been designed with 17 stations.
Station platforms have also been planned at 400 metres in length,
although technically they could be reduced to 200 metres.
The prime minister said the Transport Ministry must prepare proposals by the 15th of September for reducing technical and construction-material requirements for the first phase of Rail Baltica to the minimum level necessary to create a functional and permanently operational railway line. “So we go down to the minimum to understand what we can build and what we cannot,” Kulbergs said.
Taking into account the consultants’ assessment of project costs, the Finance Ministry and State Treasury, together with the Transport Ministry and Economics Ministry, have also been tasked with assessing by the 15th of September how much state budget funding could be allocated to Rail Baltica in the coming years, as well as identifying other sources of financing and opportunities to attract investment.
Kulbergs noted that the law now also recognises Rail Baltica’s role in military mobility, potentially opening the door to military funding that had not previously been explicitly envisaged. “We have to think outside the box about what other opportunities exist, because Europe will not provide enough money in the next funding envelope to implement this project,” he stressed.
A third task involves the State Chancellery and Transport Ministry
assessing proposed changes to the project’s governance. Kulbergs said the project has so far been poorly managed, arguing that Latvia’s interests have not been sufficiently protected in negotiations with contractors.
He also criticised the contract for construction of the main line signed in December 2023, saying it had “put us in a stranglehold” because it was concluded without specialist verification and complete project documentation.
According to Kulbergs, the contract does not set an effective maximum cost ceiling or define the maximum requirements Latvia can afford. “This is a good contractor capable of building the project, but the question is whether we can afford it. This contractor costs a very significant amount every month. If we continue building as we have until now, nobody will know when it will be completed or how it will be financed.
Nor will anyone be able to afford a train ticket,”
Kulbergs said.
The Transport Ministry said the results of the in-depth Rail Baltica review were presented on Wednesday by consultants from Alvarez & Marsal Infrastructure & Capital Projects, who analysed the causes of the project’s previous problems and proposed further steps. The assessment is classified as a restricted-access document.
The review concluded that if Latvia continues implementing Rail Baltica in the same way as before, the full cost of the Latvian section could increase significantly and the project could not be completed solely with available EU funding. Consultants also concluded that successful implementation would be unlikely without clearly assigning overall responsibility and establishing a project management team experienced in projects of a similar scale.
According to the ministry, Alvarez & Marsal recommends first deciding how much annual state budget funding Latvia can realistically allocate to Rail Baltica in the coming years. Latvia should then consult Estonia, Lithuania and the European Commission to agree on minimum technical requirements for the project, particularly regarding maximum train speeds.
The Transport Ministry also presented potential cost-saving solutions
prepared together with Eiropas Dzelzceļa līnijas (EDzL) and contractors for the 33-kilometre Rail Baltica section between Misa and the Latvian-Lithuanian border.
By rationalising the design and introducing standardised solutions for engineering structures, construction elements and environmental measures, construction costs could reportedly be reduced by 24.8%, generating around 108 million euros in savings on future construction works.
Among the proposed measures, the average height of the railway line could be lowered by approximately three metres and the thickness of the frost-protection layer reduced by 37%. This would cut embankment construction volumes by 46% and excavation and soil replacement works by 25%. It could also potentially eliminate the need to construct 13.2 kilometres of noise barriers.
The government launched the in-depth Rail Baltica review on the 3rd of November last year, appointing international consultancy Alvarez & Marsal to carry it out. The value of the consultancy contract is confidential.
The purpose of the assessment is to provide an objective and comprehensive analysis
of Rail Baltica’s implementation, examine risks and the project’s financial and contractual position, and develop recommendations and a practical action plan for more efficient, transparent and sustainable implementation.
At the end of July, the government also established a thematic committee on Rail Baltica implementation comprising ten members of the government. Chaired by Prime Minister Kulbergs, it is intended to coordinate cross-sectoral government decisions on the technically functional and financially sustainable continuation of the project.
In addition to Kulbergs, the committee includes Foreign Minister Baiba Braže, Climate and Energy Minister Jānis Vitenbergs, Education and Science Minister Ilze Indriksone, Finance Minister Māris Kučinskis, Transport Minister Rihards Kozlovskis, Defence Minister Raivis Melnis, Justice Minister Edvards Smiltēns, Smart Administration and Regional Development Minister Edgars Tavars, and Economics Minister Viktors Valainis.
The estimated cost of Rail Baltica’s first phase across the Baltic states could reach 14.3 billion euros,
including around 5.5 billion euros in Latvia, although indexation could push Latvia’s share to approximately 6 billion euros.
According to the latest cost-benefit analysis, the entire Rail Baltica project across the Baltic states could cost as much as 23.8 billion euros. By comparison, the previous cost-benefit analysis conducted in 2017 estimated the total cost at 5.8 billion euros.
Rail Baltica is intended to create a European standard-gauge railway connecting Tallinn with the Lithuanian-Polish border and, from there, linking the Baltic states with the wider European rail network. The project envisages approximately 870 kilometres of new 1,435 mm standard-gauge railway across the Baltic states, designed for maximum train speeds of up to 240 kilometres per hour.
Read also: MEP reveals where Latvia should look for billions to complete Rail Baltica
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