The European Union’s ban on the transit of Belarusian mineral fertilizers through EU member states is generating hundreds of millions—and potentially billions—of U.S. dollars in annual revenue for Russia. At the same time, the world, including Latvia, faces the risk of a global fertilizer shortage that could directly affect crop yields and future food supplies, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has warned.
Port industry experts argue that the EU’s transit restrictions have not harmed Russia but have instead benefited it. “The Russians are now earning three times more than we ever did. The same applies to other cargoes. We keep saying we have hurt Russia, but in reality they are rubbing their hands with satisfaction while making enormous profits. Meanwhile, we argue among ourselves and people lose their jobs.
The numbers are simple: in 2017, around 20,000 people were employed through the Port of Riga, and every tonne of transit cargo generated about €15 for the state budget. When the Port of Riga handled 40 million tonnes of cargo, that meant roughly €600 million a year. Today, all of that is gone,” said Leonīds Loginovs, former Chief Executive of the Port of Riga and a board member of the Latvian Stevedoring Companies Association.
Russia’s port and transit sector generates hundreds of millions of euros each year from the fertilizer trade and logistics serving the European market alone. Minimum logistics and cargo-handling costs in Russia amount to approximately US$48 (€44) per tonne. According to international media reports, Russia exported 42 million tonnes of mineral fertilizers in 2024, generating more than US$16 billion in export revenue. Industry forecasts suggest that figure will continue to grow.
Since fertilizer shipments no longer pass through the Baltic ports, Belarus has redirected its exports through Russian ports, which now handle 11.6–12 million tonnes of Belarusian fertilizers annually, primarily potash produced by Belaruskali, according to reform.news. Russia’s state budget and state-owned companies earn an estimated US$500–800 million a year from this transit. Transporting Belarusian fertilizers by Russian rail to seaports generates around US$576 million annually for Russia’s transport sector, while cargo handling and transshipment at Russian port terminals produces at least another US$240 million each year.
By closing Baltic ports to fertilizer transit, Europe has effectively handed these revenues to the aggressor state. Those hundreds of millions of dollars help finance Russia’s war against Ukraine, while Europe continues to look the other way.
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