Russia may carry out hybrid attacks in the short term, but the likelihood of a large-scale conventional Russian military attack against the Baltic states is currently very low, Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB) has concluded.
According to the Latvian intelligence service, there is a possibility that Russia could launch hybrid attacks and provocations against the Baltic states in the near future in an attempt to increase psychological pressure on NATO member states, their officials and their societies.
The aim of such pressure would be to encourage NATO countries to reduce their support for Ukraine or become more willing to make concessions to Russia in the context of the war in Ukraine and any potential diplomatic settlement, SAB said. To achieve these objectives, Russia has recently intensified its psychological and information campaigns targeting Western countries, the agency added.
In SAB’s assessment, however, the likelihood that such Russian provocations could successfully force NATO to change its policy of supporting Ukraine is very low.
At the same time, the bureau noted that Russia’s decision-making process remains highly secretive and authoritarian, with officials receiving selectively filtered and largely uncritical information. According to SAB, this significantly increases the risk of miscalculations by the Russian leadership, including when making decisions regarding actions against NATO.
The intelligence service also believes that Russia’s increased pressure on NATO is largely linked to its current inability to achieve significant military gains in Ukraine, as well as growing domestic political and economic pressure on the regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Despite the possibility of hybrid attacks, SAB stressed that the likelihood of a large-scale conventional Russian military assault on the Baltic states remains very low. According to the bureau, Russia currently lacks the military capability to launch such an attack, as the majority of its military resources remain committed to the war in Ukraine.
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